Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE VICINITY
OF ALL TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS OF 15
TO 25KT ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL
THEN TURN WESTERLY 10 TO 20KT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  48  61 /  80  10  10  30
GCK  48  78  48  57 /  90  10  20  40
EHA  48  79  47  66 /  40  10  10  50
LBL  49  81  48  67 /  60  10  10  40
HYS  51  73  46  57 /  80  10  10  20
P28  53  81  52  65 /  40  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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