Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 252047
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TRAVERSED THE CENTRAL PLAINS
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST, SHIFTING THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST AXIS EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAD RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPE WARMING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. SOME COLD ADVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. SOME CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE; AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THROUGH THE EVENING.  THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, A
COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS, WITH UPSLOPE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING. THIS COOLER UPSTREAM AIRMASS WAS ALREADY MOIST, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THEREFORE, AS THIS AIR MOVES UP SLOPE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS WILL RESULT. IN
ADDITION, THE MOIST LAYER WILL APPROACH 1 KM IN DEPTH, WHICH WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM
GARDEN CITY AND SCOTT CITY WESTWARD TO THE COLORADO BORDER. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES EVEN CLOSER AND
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN SUPPRESSED
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL SURFACE. HOWEVER, ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 7 PM
SUNDAY, SO THAT THE DETAILS OF THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUDY AIRMASS OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, WITH 50S ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS, AND SOME
60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF HAYS. WILL RANGE
RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT AT HAYS TO 60 AT DODGE CITY
AND AROUND 90 PERCENT AT LIBERAL AND ELKHART. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY, WITH OVER AN INCH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
DODGE CITY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 40S THERE, TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S EAST OF DODGE
CITY.

FOR TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE
NEW ECMWF HAS THE LOW MOVING OUT MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING FROM NEAR
DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FROM 39 WEST TO
THE MID 40S OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE
40S TO THE 50S. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO
AROUND 80 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 05Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 05 AND 08Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KGCK/KDDC
AFTER 12Z AS THE MOIST LAYER DEEPENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  57  43  53 /  20  20  60  60
GCK  48  54  43  49 /  20  30  60  60
EHA  48  56  43  46 /  40  40  90  90
LBL  50  59  45  48 /  20  30  80  90
HYS  46  56  42  58 /  20  20  30  30
P28  49  66  47  56 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.