Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 172030
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF
LIBERAL. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE REGION WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWARD RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL PRESENT
A TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH STILL
A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. A PERIOD OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE MID
EVENING WILL FOLLOW AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET PROMOTES LIFT
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

IFR STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SCATTERING OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT,
WITH GENERALLY HIGHER CEILINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  72  46  64 /  30  30  30  30
GCK  48  69  45  61 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  42  68  44  62 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  46  71  46  63 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  56  72  49  61 /  70  50  50  60
P28  56  75  51  66 /  80  50  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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