Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 011712
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

TONIGHT:

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA HAS IMPEDED FROM MOISTURE COMING BACK TO KANSAS.
THE NET RESULT IS MUCH LOWER INSTABILITY. THINK SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY
MIGHT STRENGTHEN A BIT AS IT HEADS EAST INTO BETTER (READ: MARGINAL)
MOISTURE. FORECAST DCAPE IS STILL MODERATE VIA A MIXED SOUNDING PROFILE
AND THINK SOME DOWNDRAFTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. PROBABLY BE MORE DRY MICROBURSTS
THEN WET, SINCE MOISTURE HAS BACKED OFF. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
REDUCED POPS TO MAINLY THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS LIKELY POPS BY I-70 WHERE THE COLD FRONT
IS AND BETTER LIFT COMES INTO THE CONVECTIVE PICTURE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MOST AREAS WERE DRY AND DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY STORMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER MINIMUMS EXPECTED - 40S
TO A FEW LOW 50S SOUTHEAST.

TOMORROW:

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. COOLER LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY EVENING.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME WILL EXIST THURSDAY INTO EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPECIFICALLY, A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIP EASTWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED 120 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO
KANSAS. THE INDIRECT CIRCULATION AT THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET
STREAK WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT TO INITIALLY SLOW THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

ANY DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY OUT OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THIS SLOWED FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WILL ALSO ALLOW THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH THE EXIT REGION OF
THE JET STREAK. THIS WILL BRING A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG
750-700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND EXTENDING
NORTHEAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRIPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT FROM THIS FORCING AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS LACKING BEHIND THIS
FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 1-2 KM SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO
BRING A RAIN...SNOW MIXTURE AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 56 ALTHOUGH WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 THURSDAY WHILE 50S PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

THIS COMING EASTER WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE
A VERY QUIET PATTERN RETURN TO MOST OF KANSAS AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LEE TROUGH TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
UNDER THIS SETUP WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS VIA HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ONE POTENTIAL SCENARIO THAT MAY BRING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
BELT OF POSITIVE THETA/E ADVECTION AT 800-850 HPA MAY TRIGGER SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER DARK. OTHERWISE DRY AND QUIET WILL BE
THE THEME THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A LOW CERTAINTY FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS. MOISTURE HAS
BEEN IMPEDED, SO NOT TOTALLY SURE CONVECTION WILL EVEN FORM. WILL KEEP
THE VCTS/CB GROUPS IN AROUND 21-23Z AS SOME MODELS DO SHOW STORMS BREAKING
OUT. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MARGINAL, AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD PRIMARILY
BE VFR. FROPA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 15-25 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  47  70  40 /  20  30  10  30
GCK  88  43  68  37 /  20  20  10  40
EHA  86  44  71  37 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  89  46  72  40 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  87  46  67  37 /  50  60  10  40
P28  88  54  73  46 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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