Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200613
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
113 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TONIGHT:

BOIVERIFY SHOWS THAT THE MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE A WARM BIAS. I WOULD
BELIEVE THIS GIVEN THAT THIS MORNINGS LOWS WERE A LITTLE BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. PERUSING SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
SOME SOLUTIONS ARE COOLER THAN OTHERS FOR TONIGHT`S MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
GRID. WILL GO AHEAD A TAKE THE COOLER SOLUTION GIVEN THE FACT THAT A
COLD AIR MASS IS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL NOT
BE CALM, HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE SOME APPROACHING CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MORNING. THIS COULD HAMPER WITH TEMPS.
ANYWAY, WOULD RATHER ERROR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND GO WITH COLDER
LOWS. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL. THE COLDEST OF READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S.
WITH ALL THE RECENTLY BLOOMED PLANTS, BE SURE TO USE CAUTION AND COVER
UP SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

TOMORROW:

SOME OF THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE LIKE THE 4 KM NAM AND WRF-ARW SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR EVEN SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING.
WILL PUT IN SILENT 14 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN HOW DRY THE LOW LEVELS
ARE. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
ZONES AS THE VORTMAX PASSES OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE, TOMORROW WILL
BE LESS WINDY WITH HIGHS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRANSITIONING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER
AIR IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS WILL PERSIST, AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS DOES EXIST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A POOL OF INCREASED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OFF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS UP INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS SETTING UP A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES PICK
UP AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ASHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE WEEK AND MOVES
FURTHER EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SET UP LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 10C ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F)
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 70F POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE OKALHOMA
BORDER. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY, EVEN AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY IN THE DAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN A LITTLE THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 13-15KTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN DIMINISH BY 00Z
WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  40  69  45 /  10  20  20  20
GCK  61  39  69  44 /  10  20  20  20
EHA  63  40  70  46 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  63  41  71  47 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  62  37  68  43 /  10  10  10  10
P28  64  42  69  47 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ031-046-064-
065-074>078-084>087.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-043>045-061>063.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH


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