Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 021941
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
241 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

EARLY TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30 KNOTS, AND CAPE VALUES
OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE NEAR 2000 J/KG. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE
STORMS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WEST OF A SCOTT CITY TO LAKIN
LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THESE
STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND BECOME ELEVATED.
WILL FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED. THIS IS ALSO WHERE 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IMPROVING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NET 24HOUR 850MB TEMPERATURE
CHANGE WILL RANGE FROM +2 TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES LATE DAY ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. ALSO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT
WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 STILL APPEAR TO
BE ON TRACK.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGHS ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WHAT
MAY BE ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BASED ON SURFACE DEW POINTS OF AROUND 50 JUST EAST OF
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS OUT BY THE
COLORADO BORDER THE CLOUD BASES APPEAR TO BE ABOVE THE 700MB
LEVEL. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR FROM THE NAM RANGING FROM 20 TO NEAR 30
KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES LATE DAY BETWEEN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A FEW OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OF UP
TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION INCREASE DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING,
THERE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE CAPE AND SHEAR TO SUSTAIN ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW. MORE ROBUST STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
FOLLOWING PERIOD LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
FRONTOGENESIS ENHANCES A REGION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WEST, INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH, BUT EASILY PROPOGATING EASTWARD ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS/REGION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME INTO TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY , IT IS LIKELY
CONVECTION MIGHT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED NOCTURNALLY OVERALL, BUT
MORE ACTIVE ON THE DRYLINE AND AHEAD OF IT ANY GIVEN DAY. THIS
SHOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION AUGMENTING THE SHEAR PROFILES.

IF CONVECTION IS WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, MODIFIED
AIR/EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW
THE 80S SEEN DURING THE WEEKEND. FROM AROUND TUESDAY ONWARD,
DRIER AIR ON THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD PROMOTE COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS OPPOSED TO THE HIGHER 50S AND 60S SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EASTERN COUNTIES, INHERENTLY CREATING MORE
MILD OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DECREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER 03Z SUNDAY. CLOUD
COVER WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE EARLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
CLOUD BASES AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE 9000FT AGL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  88  58  79 /  10  20  30  60
GCK  54  88  55  77 /  20  30  40  60
EHA  54  88  54  74 /  20  30  30  60
LBL  57  90  57  79 /  10  30  30  60
HYS  57  87  58  76 /  20  20  40  60
P28  59  86  60  80 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT


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