Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 031711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1211 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER NORTH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WAS CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT 12Z SUNDAY A 700MB TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM EASTERN WYOMING, ACROSS
NEBRASKA, TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. JUST SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT A
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES, COVERAGE,
AND STRENGTH FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE, A RATHER WEAK WEST-TO-EAST FLOW WAS FOUND IN THE MID
AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE, WITH 500MB FLOW AVERAGING ABOUT 15 TO 20
KNOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS WITH 250MB FLOW NOT MUCH
STRONGER AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS IS MORE LIKE A LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY
FLOW REGIME. AS A RESULT, THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEHAVE MORE LIKE LATE JUNE/JULY STORMS:
SLOW MOVING, AND MARGINAL-AT-BEST SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE LEE TROUGH AXIS/NEBULOUS DRYLINE. THE
CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG, BUT THE LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES OF EARLY MAY WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH SUCH THAT
EVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
WEAK DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH. WHEN COMPARED AGAINST THE GFS, ECMWF, AND
WRF-ARW, THE NAM12/NMMB SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPEAR TO BE TOO AMBITIOUS
WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 283 BY LATE AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN LARGE AREA OF 2000+ J/KG SBCAPE.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE MIXING THAN WHAT THE NAM12 SHOWS
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND THE
LACK OF ANY EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND. THAT SAID, THE EARLY RUNS OF
THE RAP13 AND HRRR APPEAR TO BE WHACKED OUT WITH SURFACE FLOW TOO
VEERED OUT/WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH DEWPOINTS TANKING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40F FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BELIEVE THAT
SOMETHING IN THE MIDDLE IS MORE REALISTIC IN TERMS OF WHAT WILL
REALLY PAN OUT WITH THE SURFACE SETUP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS, 1000 TO 1500 J/KG SBCAPE SHOULD BE REALIZED AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
ANY OF THE STORMS WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS/58 MPH GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT SPREADS APPROACHING 40F LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HAIL RISK
LOOKS QUITE LOW GIVEN THE POOR CAPE-SHEAR COMBINATION AND LACK OF
ANY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO SUPPORT MID-UPPER STORM-RELATIVE
SHEAR. THE STRONGEST STORM WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF QUARTER TO
PERHAPS HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL, THOUGH. THE FORECAST POPS OF 40 TO 50
PERCENT WILL COVER AREAS ALONG AND BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND 283
CORRIDOR, INCLUDING SCOTT CITY, GARDEN, LIBERAL, NESS CITY,
WAKEENEY, AND HAYS. ANTICIPATED SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN UPSCALE
GROWTH OCCURS BETWEEN 00-03Z. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF CONVECTION BY 06Z MUCH LIKE WE HAVE SEEN
OVER THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS OUT ALONG THE KS-CO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THEN WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND CURLS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY.  MOISTURE ABOVE WESTERN
KANSAS WILL INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES LEADING TO
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPRAWL OUT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY THEN
SHIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
WITH WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY FROM MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH TRAJECTORIES ON THE WEST SIDE BRINGING UP COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE
MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS DURING
THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES BECOME LIKELY TUESDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BE PULLED UP FROM THE GULF AND PWAT`S SURPASS AN INCH.

MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY.
THIS LOW THEN CURLS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY THEN
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW  PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
LOCATED TO LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50
DEGREES ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TODAY. GIVE THE LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY
THE WINDS TODAY WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET THE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS KEEP CLOUD BASES WITH THESE STORMS
AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. AT
THIS TIME THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT GCK BETWEEN 23Z
SUNDAY AND 02Z MONDAY. AT DDC AND HAY FROM 02Z TO 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  58  80  57 /  30  30  50  70
GCK  88  55  78  55 /  40  40  60  90
EHA  88  54  75  53 /  30  20  60  80
LBL  90  57  79  56 /  40  50  60  90
HYS  88  58  78  57 /  40  50  60  60
P28  86  60  81  59 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT


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