Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271852
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
152 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES ALIVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN MONTANA HELPS USHER DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AS A
PREVAILING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, LINGERING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) TONIGHT. THE LOWER TO
MID 40S(F) ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. PATCHY FROST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
THE COLDEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR MASS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MODIFY MUCH GOING INTO TUESDAY, DECREASING CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A LITTLE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. SO, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F)
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 70F POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
MORE SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH NEAR I-70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

SUNNY CONDITIONS AND MARGINALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BE THE
CHARACTER OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS WESTERN KANSAS BECOMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING MID
LEVEL LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE,
HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH IT APPEARS WELL
TO THE NORTH OVER NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KS LATE TUESDAY.

THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE POLAR JET SEGMENT
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS IN THE GFS TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD,
INTERSECTING ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ECMWF, HOWEVER FAR MORE DRY SOLUTION, DEPICTS A SIMILAR MODEL
FEATURE EVOLUTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FEATURES A
WARMING TREND TO AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS RIDGING BECOMES THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 20 TO 30KT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSUREM MOVES EAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AS ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN MONTANA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  66  41  72 /  30   0  10   0
GCK  35  66  39  73 /  10   0  10   0
EHA  37  63  39  73 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  37  65  40  73 /  40   0   0   0
HYS  37  68  41  71 /   0   0  10   0
P28  42  66  42  72 /  50   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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