Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 311850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATE FIRE WX...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MOISTURE FROM OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LOW VIS WILL GET
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BR. FOR NOW, WILL TREND
DOWN AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KDDC FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN MVFR AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS CERTAINTY INCREASES
WITH TIME. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
KGCK/KHYS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH GLD AND PUB...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ARE MUCH IN QUESTION. RH`S SHOULD EASILY REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  89  46  68 /  10  40  50  10
GCK  51  89  42  67 /   0  40  40  10
EHA  51  86  43  68 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  52  89  45  69 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  53  86  44  67 /   0  40  50  10
P28  55  87  52  70 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN



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