Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 032005
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
305 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...LONG TERM SECTION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS, AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EACH OF THESE BOUNDARIES
BASED ON 00Z MONDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH INDICATES AN
INVERTED V TYPE OF SOUNDINGS WITH CLOUD BASES NEAR THE 700MB
LEVEL. SBCAPE LATE DAY RANGED FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN
IMPROVING 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
LATE DAY INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 LATE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AROUND HAYS SUGGESTING WEAK
CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR IS
FORECAST THIS EVENING TO RANGE FROM 20 TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE A HAZARD ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS LATE DAY AND EARLY TONIGHT GIVEN THE INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON MONDAY A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE DAY AS
AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
THESE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL BE WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EJECTS OUT FROM THE BASED ON THE UPPER LOW AND
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE BASED ON THE 900 TO 850MB TEMPERATURE TREND
FROM THE NAM AND GFS FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL FAVOR A
10 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. SLIGHTLY LESS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS YIELDED
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY AS
CAPES INCREASE TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER BY LATE DAY. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BEGIN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z, AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY WILL BE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 96 GIVEN THE LOCATION OF INCREASING 0-1KM MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE THE 00Z TUESDAY INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS AND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD LATE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A
CONSIDERABLY ACTIVE PERIOD CONVECTIVELY ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MAY
BE THE HIGHEST TRUE CONVECTIVE THREAT TIMEFRAME UNTIL A SHARP WAVE
ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, IF EVEN FOR A LIMITED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP SHEAR ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH/STATIONARY
FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
STATE SHOULD BE THE FOCUS AREA, ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD
BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE SURFACE LOW
CONVERGENCE ZONE AS WELL.

ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN EXHIBITS SPLIT FLOW WITH RESPECT TO THE JETS,
THE MODELS ALL BRING THE SHORTWAVE NOW WEST OF SOUTHERN CA, INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER HEIGHT GRADIENT
SHARPENS, THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO RESPOND WITH SIGNIFICANT
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WITH THE FIRST MOISTURE ADVECTION SURGE ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED GIVEN SUSTAINED FORCING MECHANISMS.
CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY EVEN IF BECOMING
ONLY ISOLATED BETWEEN THE INITIAL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENT LIFT AND
THE FOLLOWING UPPER WAVE WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY OR OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALL OF THIS CONVECTION
IMPACTS REMAINS TO BE SEEN, HOWEVER WE`VE USED MODEL CONSENSUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE TUESDAY AND
BEYOND TIMEFRAME AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EAST OF THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR WILL SEE 1.2-1.5 INCH LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOCALIZED AS ORGANIZED AREAS OF
RAINFALL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.

IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING MID WEEK, ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE
BE TIED TO THE SURFACE FRONT OR EVEN A DRYLINE WHICH SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE IN THE CWA. THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE
STRONGLY WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE WESTERN LOWS,
SO UNCERTAINTY BECOMES HIGH IN THESE PERIODS. WITH A WARM REGIME THE
MODELS AND OUTPUT STATS MAINTAIN HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR EARLY MAY, WITH GRADUALLY COOLING OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THE DRIER
AIR REPLACES THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TODAY. GIVE THE LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY
THE WINDS TODAY WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET THE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS KEEP CLOUD BASES WITH THESE STORMS
AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. AT
THIS TIME THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT GCK BETWEEN 23Z
SUNDAY AND 02Z MONDAY. AT DDC AND HAY FROM 02Z TO 06Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  80  57  69 /  40  50  80  80
GCK  55  78  55  67 /  40  60  90  90
EHA  54  75  53  70 /  30  60  80  80
LBL  57  79  56  69 /  40  60  90  90
HYS  58  78  57  72 /  40  60  60  60
P28  60  81  59  75 /  20  30  30  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT



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