Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250508
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1208 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AT 00Z SATURDAY A 500MB TROUGH/LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 250MB JET. FURTHER WEST A 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST/NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z
SATURDAY. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE WARM FRONT AND
STRETCHED FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND A CLEARING
TREND WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, RAP, AND HRRR WERE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS AND KEEPS CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY. IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS IN THE 3000 TO
4000FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HYS AREA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BY LATE MORNING
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  61  44  58 /  10  30  50  50
GCK  49  57  44  57 /  20  40  50  50
EHA  48  66  44  55 /  10  50  70  70
LBL  50  67  45  57 /  10  40  60  60
HYS  46  57  42  60 /  10  20  30  30
P28  51  65  47  60 /  10  30  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT



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