Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-20C AND 400MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -32C CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE,
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. STRONG
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS
ERODE, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER, ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE DENSITY. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL
AS LARGE AS 2" IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED FROM SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY
TO LIBERAL BY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD TO THE 50S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE KDDC TERMINAL. SECOND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KHYS. TIMING
SHOULD BE 20-22Z FOR KDDC AND 21-23Z FOR KHYS. KGCK SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF THE DRYLINE AND THUS CONVECTION FREE. WILL MAINTAIN THE TSRA/CB GROUPS
FOR THE TWO TERMINALS. SOME HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
SHOULD A SEVERE TS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING
NORTHWESTERLY 15-30 KT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEFORMATION BAND AROUND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  46  64  36 /  60  60  30  10
GCK  72  45  61  34 /  20  30  20  10
EHA  70  44  62  36 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72  46  63  37 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  74  49  61  34 /  60  70  60  10
P28  74  54  66  38 /  60  80  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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