Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281704
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 12Z SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A 500MB TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH 70 TO 90 METER 500MB 12
HOUR HEIGHT FALLS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A
250MN +80KT JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM THE BASED OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WAS PRESENT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 12Z SATURDAY RANGED FROM +2C AT TOPEKA TO +16C AT
DODGE CITY TO 19C AT AMARILLO. A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
ALLOW RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY LATER TODAY. WHILE WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VEERING WITH TIME, SLIGHTLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD BE ACHIEVED BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH A
BETTER GRADIENT AND LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WITH
RESPECT TO TODAY`S HIGHS, SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFS MOS
INDICATING TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE MID 80S IN EXTREME SW KS. WE
WILL HEDGE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MODEL EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND USE THE 4 KM NAM SPATIALLY. 15
DEGREES OF DIFFERENCE IS NOT UNREASONABLE BETWEEN ELKHART AND AND
HAYS WITH THIS PATTERN AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER DEW
POINTS CWA-WIDE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH HE NAM MODEL DEVELOPS
WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITY IN PRESUMED RADIATION FOG, THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT IN A SIMILAR SOLUTION FRONT THE NMM AND ARW, BUT BEARS
WATCHING IN HE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. MODELS GENERATE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, WHICH COULD BOTTOM OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT
EARLY SUNDAY IT IS NOT IMPLAUSIBLE FOR SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER IT IS FAR MORE LIKELY MUCH FARTHER NORTH WHERE
DEFORMATION AND COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO BETTER MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLY IN THIS PERIOD (SUNDAY), A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE (IN
TERMS OF WIND SHIFT/STRENGTH). THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, SO MUCH OF THE FLOW BEHIND THIS STORM
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORIES. DESPITE THE FRONT
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL HIT 70+ ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE GRIDS,
AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
ISALLOBARIC WIND WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES. 20 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WIND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

POLAR FLOW RIDGING WILL THEN APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. A RECIRCULATION OF THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL PREVENT A MAJOR WARM-UP MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST. LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-77F RANGE SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THOUGH, FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.

THE MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER LOOKS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A BROAD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, FAVORING A DEEP LEE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY QUITE UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT THE SIGNALS
ARE INCREASING THAT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORM EPISODES SHOULD RESULT
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WHICH COULD INCLUDE AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST-WEST CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS
SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM THE WEST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 25 TO 35
MPH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE
BOTH IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MOISTURE PRECEDING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEING AT OR ABOVE THE 9000FT AGL LEVEL. AS A RESULT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  47  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  81  45  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  84  48  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  82  47  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  48  70  36 /   0   0  10   0
P28  78  47  73  40 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT


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