Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161654
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1154 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS
POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE MORNING CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING,
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB, ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES TODAY OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN
WARMER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT, NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 19Z WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AND LARGE HAIL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  54  70  49 /  80  70  60  60
GCK  71  52  68  44 /  70  60  60  60
EHA  72  51  67  42 /  50  60  30  30
LBL  73  54  70  46 /  70  60  50  50
HYS  71  53  69  49 /  80  80  70  50
P28  77  56  71  54 /  40  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE


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