Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
311 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ABBREVIATED SHORT TERM DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THE GENERAL
STORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THINK THE MOST LIKEST PLACE (IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW),
IS ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE. THIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM TREGO COUNTY,
JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY, AND DOWN TO EAST CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY. INSTABILITY
AND BULK SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENT AND
THEN STORM TYPE EVOLVING INTO A LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MID EVENING. INITIALLY, IT WILL BE A LARGE HAIL EVENT WITH THE LHP FORECAST
HAIL SIZE OF AROUND 2". THIS SHOULD BE THE MAX SIZE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH HEIGHT WITH TIME, SO THINK BENEFICIAL COMPETITION WILL INCREASE
AS TIME GOES FORWARD...HENCE, HAIL SIZE GROWTH POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MITIGATED. FOR A TORNADO CONCERN, LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT WINDOW ACROSS BARBER, COMANCHE, AND PRATT COUNTIES,
WHERE THIS IMPROVES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THINK ACTIVITY WON`T BE
AS DISCRETE BY THAT TIME. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD THEN EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE
WIND OUTFLOW CONCERN. BOTTOM LINE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS JUST NOT
THAT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES, EXCEPT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ONLY FOR A SMALL WINDOW. OTHERWISE, SEVERE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 03Z OR SO. A DEFORMATION BAND
IS FORECAST BEHIND THE MID TO LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION AND THINK
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WAKE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS
SHOW DECENT QPF WITH THIS ACTIVITY, SO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES MIGHT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

FOR MONDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE ELKHART AREA, THEN SLIGHT CHANCES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT
ALOT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED HOWEVER. HIGHS MONDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

FOR TUESDAY, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF
DODGE CITY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS GULF MOISTURE
MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. FOR THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS WITH ONLY SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. FOR FRIDAY, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF WHILE THE GFS LAGS BEHIND
WITH THE WAVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY DECENT
SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, OR IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT THIS SCENARIO DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND 14Z, WITH MVFR
CIGS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 19Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KTS BETWEEN 17-23Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  34  63  40 /  60   0  10  20
GCK  56  32  62  39 /  30   0  10  20
EHA  57  34  64  40 /  20   0  30  30
LBL  59  34  65  41 /  30   0  10  20
HYS  58  33  62  37 /  50   0  10  10
P28  63  37  64  42 /  60   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH


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