Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020718
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
218 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WARM AND WINDY DAY IS IN STORE TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE, A FAIRLY FLAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID-UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, WITH THE CROSS-MOUNTAIN MOMENTUM LEADING TO A FURTHER
DEEPENING OF THE LEESIDE TROUGH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH
AND A GULF COAST HIGH WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY,
PARTICULARLY WEST OF A LIBERAL TO GARDEN TO WAKEENEY LINE. WEST OF
THERE WILL NOT BE AS WINDY CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH AXIS. LATE
AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS OF +25C WEST TO +18C EAST WILL LEAD TO HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S, WITH A FEW 85 TO 87F READINGS LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LEESIDE TROUGH
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO, HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING IN A RATHER DRY AIRMASS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A LOT
OF OUTFLOW DOMINATION. SOME EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS COULD REACH HAMILTON COUNTY BY EARLY EVENING, HOWEVER CLOUD-
BEARING STEERING FLOW WILL BE MEAGER, SO ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION
WILL BE LIMITED, AND BY THE TIME ANY MEANINGFUL CONVECTION ENTERS
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS, IT WILL BE MID TO LATE EVENING AND CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE, MUCH LIKE WHAT WE SAW LATE LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE SAME GENERAL AREA. WILL BE GOING WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WAY OUT WEST FOR THIS FORECAST SCENARIO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY BUT THEN BE PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE THEN WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND CURLS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS WE START THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH
WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY FROM MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA WITH AMPLE MID
TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT UP FROM THE GULF.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE HIGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
LIFT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY THEN IS PUSHED
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THEN TREKS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE ACTION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER
POSSIBLY REACHING 90 DEGREES. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A LEESIDE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY LEADING TO STRONG
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE DDC, GCK, HYS TERMINALS. LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL RANGE 18 TO 24 KNOTS SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30S KNOTS. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
11 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE TERMINALS, INCLUDING GCK, SO THE TAF WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  56  88  58 /  10  10  20  40
GCK  87  54  88  55 /  10  10  30  40
EHA  85  55  87  54 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  86  57  88  58 /  10  10  20  30
HYS  85  57  86  58 /  10  10  40  50
P28  84  58  85  60 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



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