Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232016
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4
KM NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST
IN THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO
A MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE GARDEN
CITY AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
HAYS ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP OFF AND ON THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE STORMS
WILL IMPACT OPERATIONS AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS AT THOSE TERMINALS. HAYS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
TO BE IMPACTED AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THERE LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  81  49  78 /  40  20  20  10
GCK  50  77  48  77 /  50  20  20  10
EHA  49  76  47  79 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  54  80  48  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  51  73  50  73 /  60  40  40  10
P28  56  82  52  80 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD


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