Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 011707
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1207 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT
HAS STALLED OUT, EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST
COLORADO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN CANADA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALL OUT OVER
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TO
BECOME SATURATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL THINKING REGARDING NEXT
WEEK`S PRECIPITATION EVENT. THERE ARE STILL VERY STRONG SIGNALS OF A
PROLONGED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS,
INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IN FACT, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL TO
ACCUMULATE BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AMPLE GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A FORMIDABLE STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE BEST TIME FRAME
FOR THE MOST ABUNDANT RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY
NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE-INCH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. THE
LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A 1.5 TO 2-INCH HIT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOR THE 48-HR PERIOD ENDING 18Z
WEDNESDAY.

THE SEVERE WEATHER COMPONENT TO ALL THIS IS A LITTLE LESS CLEAR. WE
WILL SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST ZONES AS SOME
OF THE INITIAL DECENT MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE ANEMIC AS WELL. SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WILL INCREASE, MARGINALLY, ON MONDAY AS THE POLAR FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT, CAPE WILL
INCREASE TO THE TUNE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OR SO, BUT THE SHEAR
PROFILE WILL STILL BE QUITE POOR WITH SOUTHWEST 500MB FLOW ONLY IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW NOT MUCH
BETTER.

HEADING IN TO TUESDAY, DEEPER, RICH MOISTURE WILL REALLY SPREAD INTO
THE AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER, LIKELY
LIMITING INSOLATION. SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY, AT THIS TIME,
LOOKS QUITE LOW, BUT THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING
FORECAST BY THE GFS CERTAINLY SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE F120 GFS40 VALID 00Z WED SHOWS AROUND 1.25
INCH PW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS ABOVE
THE MAX MOVING AVERAGE LINE FOR THAT DATE (REF SPC SOUNDING CLIMO
PAGE FOR DDC) AND ABOUT WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR LATE JULY AROUND
HERE.  ON WEDNESDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT,
AND THE DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM BEHIND THIS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SETUP, WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW WILL ALSO BE BETTER BY
THEN, SO WE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO WATCH THIS DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST, FOR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE AND A RELOADING OF THE TROUGH OUT WEST, THE
DRYLINE WILL REMAIN A FEATURE OF INTEREST GOING INTO LATE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  IT IS CERTAINLY LOOKING LIKE QUITE THE
INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP NEXT WEEK, METEOROLOGICALLY
SPEAKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A NEAR-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
UP TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  55  85  57 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  80  54  85  55 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  82  52  85  56 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  82  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  77  55  85  56 /  20  20  10  10
P28  80  56  85  59 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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