Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 212004
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
304 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE, A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW WILL HELP PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH IT STRETCHED
ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT THEN TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO ENVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
TOMORROW AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW ONLY REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS AND GEM ALL SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEK. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE STATIONARY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF KANSAS FROM THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A COOL MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OVER
OKLAHOMA. AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SOME SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND WE SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.

THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A
CLOSED OFF LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT COULD EXTEND FROM THE LOW INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE A DRYLINE FORMS FARTHER SOUTH AND PUSHES EAST
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL
STABILITY FIELDS FROM THE GFS SHOW 1500-2000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FARTHER SOUTH.
TIMING WILL BE KEY IN HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WE SEE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW SCOOTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
BEHIND THIS WAVE WE SHOULD SEE COOLER AND QUIETER WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS
TO MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS
OVER 10 KNOTS. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE EVENING. THIS WILL BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  64  45  63 /  20  20  20  10
GCK  40  65  44  63 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  44  65  48  69 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  44  65  48  67 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  37  63  42  60 /  10  10  10  10
P28  45  65  46  66 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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