Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230615
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
115 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE IS
LOCATED ABOVE THE ROCKIES WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES, LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LEADING TO INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
BEFORE CURVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX/OK BORDER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TOMORROW. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER OVERNIGHT EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
KS/CO BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
BUT THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AREA PROPAGATING
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST ACROSS
KANSAS. THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW AND MOVES IT EAST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE GFS AND NAM ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THE
MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AXIS WRAPS BACK INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR
THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH 40-60 KNOT 0-6 KM
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR  DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WINDING DOWN LATER FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FORCING MECHANISMS MOVE
EAST.

LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING
TOWARD MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURRING WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATER
IN THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TAKING A CLOSED LOW SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS TEXAS. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES IT FARTHER
SOUTH. THE NORTHWARD TRACK COULD BE VERY BENEFICIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LATEST EXTENDED INITIALIZATION
PRODUCES CHANCE POPS FOR THE DODGE CITY FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES, WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THIS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THE TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL BE CEILINGS HEADING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM FORECASTS A SHARP
CUTOFF FOR SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A ZONE OF
DRIZZLE PRODUCTION IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID LEVEL MOIST ZONE
(ROUGHLY THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE HIGHWAY 83-283 CORRIDORS).
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING, ORIGINATING FROM
SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION EVEN FOR A PROB GROUP IN ANY TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  81  50 /  20  30  30  10
GCK  62  51  77  47 /  20  30  30  20
EHA  73  49  79  47 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  67  54  81  49 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  59  51  71  49 /  10  50  60  50
P28  64  54  82  52 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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