Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250659
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
159 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORECAST BY
THE 00Z NAM IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
LATE DAY. EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLING TREND THE 850MB TEMPERATURES
AT 00Z SUNDAY SUGGEST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56. THIS
APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP, AND THE NAM AND GFS INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. DEPTH OF THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE BY 12Z
SUNDAY WILL TO BE LESS THAN 3000FT AGL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS SO AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OF INSERTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, DRIZZLE, TONIGHT. OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT THE THE DEPTH OF THE
MOIST LAYER WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CURRENT
FORECAST CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST
OF A GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTRAL LINE AND SO WILL LEAVE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS IS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND A CLEARING
TREND WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, RAP, AND HRRR WERE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS AND KEEPS CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY. IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS IN THE 3000 TO
4000FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HYS AREA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BY LATE MORNING
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  48  61  44 /   0  10  30  50
GCK  78  49  57  44 /   0  20  40  50
EHA  78  48  66  44 /   0  10  50  70
LBL  81  50  67  45 /   0  10  40  60
HYS  72  46  57  42 /   0  10  20  30
P28  82  51  65  47 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT



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