Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210550
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1250 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

TONIGHT:

WATCHING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A VORTMAX APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. KDDC WSR-
88D IS PICKING UP ECHOES (CLOUDS), HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN NO PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE OBSERVATION GRID NETWORK THUS FAR. THERE IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACCUMULATION THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. HERE, THE VORTMAX WILL TRAVERSE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
IN ADDITION, ENHANCED 700-HPA FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST FROM THE NAM.
I HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AS THIS AREA IS CLOSER IN PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS.
THE 12Z WRF-ARW IS THE OUTLIER WITH QPF FARTHER NORTH. EXPANDED THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT POPS TOWARDS HAYS TO REFLECT THIS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT GREAT (LOW, IN FACT). TO ADD, HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MOST AREAS
EXPERIENCING NO PRECIPITATION PERHAPS OTHER THAN A SPRINKLE. THIS SYSTEM
IS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE BETTER CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT`S
MINIMUMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE "MILD" THAN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH
MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. NO FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS.

TOMORROW:

WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TOMORROW. A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD TOMORROW, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 850-HPA TEMPS IN ITS WAKE.
THE WARMEST LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, WHERE LOW TO MID 70S
ARE EXPECTED. TO THE NORTH, HIGHS AROUND 70 LOOKS REASONABLE. POPS WILL
REMAIN AOB 14 PERCENT TO CLOSE OUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

BY TUESDAY EVENING, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
LOW. OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, THE GREAT LAKES
LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST WHILE THE REX PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AS
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE MODELS PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF KANSAS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES OVER A WEAK SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXPECTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S LIKELY.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION GETS
EJECTED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME STRENGTH
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS MAINLY IN THAT THE GFS
TENDS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF/GEM MODEL SOLUTIONS.
WHILE DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, WHERE THE BETTER 0-6 KM
SHEAR WILL BE FOCUSED.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
RESPITE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEAK FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES, THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL
SHIFT AND INCREASE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 15-25KT AROUND AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  65  45  62 /  20  40  20  30
GCK  40  65  45  62 /  20  30  20  40
EHA  44  65  48  66 /  20  30  30  30
LBL  44  66  48  65 /  30  30  20  30
HYS  37  62  43  63 /  10  20  20  40
P28  45  65  47  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...KRUSE



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