Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 201112
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SLOWLY MIGRATING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR VIRGA WAS OCCURRING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA STATE LINE, BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL NOT BE MEASURABLE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MOST PLACES,
WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IF ANY LOCATIONS KEEP CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND WITH A MODERATING AIRMASS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR TUESDAY, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING FROM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER TO THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA AS
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70.
OVERNIGHT, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE
AS GULF MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
AS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE COMING
INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE NEW GFS RUN IS NOW FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THIS WAVE. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF
DODGE CITY. MORE SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS RETURN SUNDAY WITH
A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN KANSAS,
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15KT. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ALSO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY, THEN MOVE OUT BY LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  40  71  46 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  61  39  70  44 /  20  10  10  20
EHA  63  40  71  47 /  20  20  10  30
LBL  63  41  72  48 /  20  20  10  30
HYS  62  37  70  44 /  10  10  10  20
P28  64  42  72  50 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ031-046-064-
065-074>078-084>087.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-043>045-061>063.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE


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