Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 021859
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
159 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

EARLY TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30 KNOTS, AND CAPE VALUES
OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE NEAR 2000 J/KG. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE
STORMS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WEST OF A SCOTT CITY TO LAKIN
LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THESE
STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND BECOME ELEVATED.
WILL FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED. THIS IS ALSO WHERE 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IMPROVING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NET 24HOUR 850MB TEMPERATURE
CHANGE WILL RANGE FROM +2 TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES LATE DAY ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. ALSO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT
WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 STILL APPEAR TO
BE ON TRACK.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGHS ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WHAT
MAY BE ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BASED ON SURFACE DEW POINTS OF AROUND 50 JUST EAST OF
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS OUT BY THE
COLORADO BORDER THE CLOUD BASES APPEAR TO BE ABOVE THE 700MB
LEVEL. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR FROM THE NAM RANGING FROM 20 TO NEAR 30
KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES LATE DAY BETWEEN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A FEW OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OF UP
TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY BUT THEN BE PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE THEN WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND CURLS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS WE START THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH
WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY FROM MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA WITH AMPLE MID
TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT UP FROM THE GULF.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE HIGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
LIFT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY THEN IS PUSHED
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THEN TREKS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE ACTION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER
POSSIBLY REACHING 90 DEGREES. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DECREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER 03Z SUNDAY. CLOUD
COVER WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE EARLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
CLOUD BASES AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE 9000FT AGL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  88  58  79 /  10  20  20  60
GCK  54  88  55  76 /  20  30  20  60
EHA  54  88  54  76 /  20  30  20  60
LBL  57  90  57  79 /  10  30  20  60
HYS  57  87  58  76 /  20  20  30  60
P28  59  86  60  81 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.