Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180820
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF
LIBERAL. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE REGION WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWARD RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL PRESENT
A TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH STILL
A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. A PERIOD OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE MID
EVENING WILL FOLLOW AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET PROMOTES LIFT
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KHYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 20Z.
MVFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT DDC BY 10-12Z WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
KHYS/KGCK AFTER 09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  46  64  36 /  30  40  30  10
GCK  69  45  61  34 /  10  30  20  10
EHA  68  44  62  36 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  71  46  63  37 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  72  49  61  34 /  50  50  60  10
P28  75  51  66  38 /  50  60  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH


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