Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FGUS73 KDDC 052121
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CST THU MAR 05 2015
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...
This outlook applies to the Dodge City Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)
which includes the following rivers in southwest Kansas...
- The Arkansas River from the Kansas-Colorado state line to below
- the Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers in Trego and Ellis counties
- the Walnut Creek in Ness and Rush counties
- the Pawnee Creek and Buckner Creek
- the Rattlesnake Creek and Crooked Creek
- the Cimarron River and Medicine Lodge River
This outlook is valid from March 5 through March 19, 2015
Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Dodge City
Service area result from short periods of higher intensity
precipitation...or longer periods of excessive precipitation.
Beneficial precipitation has been received over parts of southwest
Kansas, especially in the area from Syracuse and Elkhart through
Ulysses and Ashland during February. Precipitation over the past
three months, from December through February, has ranged from
1-3 inches above normal in the above mentioned area to 1-2 inches
below normal farther northeast across central and west central
Looking back over the past six months, a somewhat different pattern
has been the case. That part of central and southwest Kansas from
Hays through Garden City and Dodge City to Johnson, Elkhart and
Hugoton has seen precipitation amounts as much as 110 to 150 percent
of normal. The drier areas in parts of west central and south central
Kansas have seen precipitation amounts around 50 to 80 percent
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor Index (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu)
issued March 5, 2015 continues to show abnormally dry to severe
drought conditions occurring across much of central and southwest
Kansas, with an area of extreme drought conditions over far southwest
Kansas from Morton county to Meade county. These conditions have
remained unchanged through the late fall and winter months.
The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
valid through May 2015 is calling for drought conditions to improve
over virtually all of southwest Kansas.
The eight to fourteen day climate outlooks from CPC are calling for
below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures.
Colorado Rocky Mountain winter snowpack in the Upper Arkansas River
Basin is near long term average conditions. The average
snowpack from USDA SNOTEL sites in the upper part of the basin is
roughly at 104 percent of average.
At John Martin Reservoir in southeast Colorado, the current water
surface elevation is at 3809.23 feet which equates to storage of
approximately 40,022 acre-feet. The water surface elevation is
approximately 43 feet below the top of the conservation pool. The
conservation pool is approximately 12 percent filled so there is
ample reservoir storage for snowmelt.
At Cedar Bluff Reservoir in west central Kansas, the reservoir pool
elevation stands at 2121.0 feet or approximately 23 feet below the
top of the conservation pool and 45 feet from the top of the flood
pool which means there is abundant capacity for spring rains.
The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow conditions map
shows that flows in area continue to be much below normal.
Based on the above information, there is a normal to slightly below
normal risk of spring flooding across the Dodge city Service Area.
This will be the last issuance of the Spring Flood and Water
Outlook this year.
Visit our web site weather.gov/ddc for more weather and water