Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
628 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook applies to the Dodge City Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)
which includes the following rivers in southwest Kansas...

  - The Arkansas River from the Kansas-Colorado state line to below
    Larned, Kansas
  - the Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers in Trego and Ellis counties
  - the Walnut Creek in Ness and Rush counties
  - the Pawnee Creek and Buckner Creek
  - the Rattlesnake Creek and Crooked Creek
  - the Cimarron River and Medicine Lodge River

This outlook is valid from February 19 through March 5, 2015

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Dodge City
Service area result from short periods of higher intensity
precipitation...or longer periods of excessive precipitation.

Precipitation over the past three months has been within 1-2 inches
above to 1-2 inches below normal across the Dodge City Service Area.
The southwest part of the area has seen slightly above normal
precipitation amounts while areas farther north and east have been a
little below normal.

A somewhat different pattern has been the case over the past year.
Parts of central, west central and southwest Kansas saw precipitation
amounts as much as 2-4 inches above normal while parts of south
central and far southwest Kansas were up to 4 inches below normal for
the year.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor Index (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu)
issued February 19, 2015 shows abnormally dry to severe drought
conditions occurring across much of central and southwest Kansas,
with an area of extreme drought conditions over far southwest Kansas
from Morton county to Meade county. These conditions have remained
fairly stable through the late fall and winter months.

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
valid through May 2015 is calling for drought conditions to improve
over virtually all of southwest Kansas.

The eight to fourteen day climate outlooks from CPC are forecasting
above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures.

Colorado Rocky Mountain winter snowpack in the Upper Arkansas River
Basin is slightly below long term average conditions. The average
snowpack from USDA SNOTEL sites in the upper part of the basin is
roughly at 90 percent of average.

At John Martin Reservoir in southeast Colorado, current water surface
elevation is at 3807.50 feet which equates to storage of
approximately 34,416 acre-feet. The water surface elevation is
approximately 44 feet below the top of the conservation pool. The
conservation pool is approximately 10 percent filled so there is
ample reservoir storage for snowmelt.

At Cedar Bluff Reservoir in west central Kansas, the reservoir pool
elevation stands at 2121.0 feet or approximately 23 feet below the
top of the conservation pool and 45 feet from the top of the flood
pool which means there is abundant capacity for spring rains.

The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow conditions map
shows that flows in area are below to much below normal.

Based on the above information, there is a normal to slightly below
normal risk of spring flooding across the Dodge city Service Area.

The next scheduled Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be
issued on March 5, 2015.

Visit our web site weather.gov/ddc for more weather and water
information.

$$

GERARD





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