Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251730
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

FOR THE LATEST ESTF UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND
SKY...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS SW NEBRASKA...BUT OVERALL NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE SUNNY
WORDING IN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AND HOW COOL TO MAKE IT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. SYSTEM THAT GAVE AREA SOME THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY AND EARLIER TONIGHT IS MOVING STEADILY EAST OUT OF THE
AREA.

AT JET LEVEL..THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE PRETTY CLOSE BUT WOULD HAVE TO
GIVE THE EDGE TO THE NAM...UKMET...AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVING A LITTLE
DIFFICULTY AT THE SURFACE DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION AND COMPLICATED
SETUP. THE CANADIAN...NAM AND SREF WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE REST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AFTER THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AND DRIER AIR MASS/DECENT OF AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FACTORS ALLOWING
FOR A WARMUP TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND/OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE WINDS
TO AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. GUIDANCE A LITTLE BETTER TODAY AND BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS/RECENT PERFORMANCE...WILL GO TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE
IN THE NORTH AND EAST AND WARMER FURTHER SOUTH.

THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP THE
AREA DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE FAR WEST.

FOR THE NIGHT...TREND FROM YESTERDAY HAS CONTINUED. INCOMING SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER NEW MEXICO IS SLOWER
TO ARRIVE WITH UPPER LOW DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS IS LEAVING
RIDGING OVER THE AREA LONGER AND KEEPING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT FURTHER SOUTH. SURFACE FRONT IS ALSO RATHER FAR SOUTH SO ANY
OVERRUNNING WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH. SO DELAYED ARRIVAL OF POPS AND
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST MAY NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL DURING THIS
PERIOD.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY FROM NEW
MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. DESPITE THIS SYSTEM BEING RATHER
FAR SOUTH...DEEP UPSLOPE WILL BE IN PLACE. AM SURPRISED MOISTURE
IS NOT MORE PLENTIFUL AND THERE IS A LARGER AIR OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE DRIER GETS PULLED IN FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...MUCH HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
RESIDE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTION...WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT RESIDE...WHERE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
OVER THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST. THERE COULD BE A SHARP AND
DRAMATIC CUTOFF WHERE THERE IS PRECIPITATION OR NOT. ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

THE NORTHEAST PORTION WILL PROBABLY BE WARMER SINCE IT WILL HAVE
THE LEAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEAST CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER
THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DRYING TREND IN THE MOISTURE LEVELS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL
SOUTH AND EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR
SOUTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GOVERNED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS OUT. MODELS DISAGREE A GREAT
DEAL ABOUT THIS AND AS A RESULT THERE IS A HUGE SPREAD IN PROGGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW AM GOING IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES
WITH A HEDGE TOWARD THE WARMER MAXES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO
BE REVISITED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
COLORADO ON FRIDAY WILL NOT MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU ABOUT 04Z-05Z SUNDAY WITH
SCT050-060 SCT-BKN120-150. AFT 05Z WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST BUT MOVING SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT 3-6SM IN
FOG/DZ WITH CEILINGS OVC002-006. KGLD WILL SEE VCTS CONDITIONS
FROM 05Z-09Z. WINDS ENE TO START AROUND 10KTS...SHIFTING TO ESE
10-20KTS BY 09Z-13Z SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN


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