Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 171849
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1249 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ONTO
THE PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VORTICITY
LOBES ROTATING AROUND IT WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALREADY IN
PLACE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND RECENT
RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK AS FAR AS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED...SINCE MORNING CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO ERODE AND INSOLATION HAS BEEN LIMITED.
NONETHELESS...18Z SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES UP TO 1500 J/KG
OF SBCAPE IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE WITH ANY
AFTERNOON HEATING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KTS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS IF BETTER INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TWO DAY
TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES AND LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES HAS RESULTED IN
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOWER FFG VALUES. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT OVERALL QPF FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM MODELS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.50 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN BULLSEYES. AS A RESULT...DO NOT FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH
AREAL THREAT TO JUSTIFY A FFW AT THIS TIME.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECTING A ROBUST BAND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IT WILL BE IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EXITING TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. PROXIMITY
TO THE UPPER LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...PRIMARILY IN EASTERN
COLORADO THEN SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE SET UP WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH EXCELLENT SHEAR BUT QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT WITH A CUT OFF LOW
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FEATURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A STRONG 50 KT 500 MB JET ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ON MONDAY.
LOWER HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE TO COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
COULD RESULT DUE TO EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
30S...BUT LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL INDICATES A WEAK 700 MB
SHORTWAVE AND SOME JET ENERGY OVER THE TRI STATE AREA COUPLED WITH
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GFS SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
SATURATED LAYER THAT COULD INDICATE DECENT CLOUD COVER THAT COULD
INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING AND THWART STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS FAVOR MORE
OF A DRY PATTERN...SO MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST A BIT.  DECIDED
TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO CAPE IN THE
PROFILE.

ECMWF AND GFS HAVE DIFFERENCES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.  THE
GFS SHOWS A RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...BUT ECMWF HAS SUBSIDENCE WITH MORE OF
A RIDGE PATTERN.  BECAUSE OF THE START DIFFERENCES WITH THE POSITION
OF THE ONCOMING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...HARD TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE NOT INCLUDED DUE TO CAPE IN THE PROFILE...SO LEFT
THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK AND MAY BRIEFLY REACH MVFR IN THE MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP BY THAT
TIME AS UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. BAND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIFT FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL POTENTIALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE BURNING OFF SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...024



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