Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 300930
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
330 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 40S WEST TO LOW 50S EAST.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AS WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES
SLOWLY EAST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ONE FIZZLES A BIT DURING THE NIGHT LEAVING A
DECREASING CHANCE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S FAR EAST.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN DURING THE EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTINUING FOR
SOME INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 80S EAST
OF THE STATE LINE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
WEST...LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS... ECMWF... AND
CMC ARE ALL IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT UPON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF THE TROUGHS HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE IS BECOMING A BIT MORE PERSISTENT UPON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT UPON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS SENDING IT
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE ECMWF SENDING IT FURTHER
EAST OVER WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW
WITH AN ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODEL AT THIS TIME. I AM STILL LEANING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE PROJECTED STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE LOW OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. IF THE GFS SOLUTION WERE TO PLAY OUT
THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD SET UP JUST WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION WERE
CORRECT WE WOULD SEE THE STORMS SET UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE ECMWF HAS
ALSO BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM DUE TO STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. SHEAR SEEMS TO DROP OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH. PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES FOR THE
TIME PERIOD WILL BE 0.80 TO 1.15 INCHES FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z BEFORE BACKING SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND GUSTING 15-20KTS THROUGH 23Z OR 00Z. A SOUTHEAST
WIND NEAR 12KTS EXPECTED AT 00Z SLOWLY DECREASING WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH THROUGH 06Z THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL FROM 03Z-12Z
AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LIGHT EAST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE
IS FORECAST TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER REACHING 12KTS
AROUND 16Z THEN GUST TOWARD 20KTS FROM 17Z-00Z. FROM 00Z-06Z
SOUTHEAST WIND 10KTS OR SO EXPECTED WITH A SLOW BACKING TO THE
EAST AROUND 5KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND OR OVER THE TERMINAL GENERALLY AFTER 04Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...99


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