Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 220846
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.  THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MISSOURI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

PLAN TO CONTINUE NIL POPS FOR THE FA TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF
FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE
RIDGE AND PROVIDE SOME FORCING OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT.
INITIALLY THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE IN THE EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPE VALUES DECREASE OVERNIGHT SO PREDOMINANT TYPE WILL BE SHOWERS.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD HANDLE THIS EVENT DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK
OF MOISTURE AND FORCING. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
ALL BUT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.  THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTS
THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL DECREASE IN THE EASTERN FA
BEHIND THE EXITING MORNING SHORTWAVE. GOOD DYNAMICS SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS BEST OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES (NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36).  HIGHER CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THAT AREA. SHEAR
VALUES ARE GENERALLY 25 TO 35 ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES ARE AT 40KTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES.  THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY WITH ITS BEST DYNAMICS.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE
SHOWING A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY.  THERE IS ENOUGH
SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN ZONES TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE
EAST OF THE FA SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A TROUGH
ENTERS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY. PRECIP CHANCE CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES EAST.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND IN THE 60S THROUGH
MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AT KMCK.
LLWS WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR KGLD...BUT NOT FOR
KMCK WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LIGHTER
WINDS.  DURING MID MORNING THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS MIXING
BEGINS...THEN DECLINE AGAIN DURING THE EVENING. THERE DOES LOOK TO
BE A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR KGLD DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE SAME POSSIBILITY FOR KMCK DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OUTSIDE THE TAF.

&&



&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL



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