Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 182057
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
257 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE AND POP/SKY/WEATHER
GRID ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY GOOD AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA
SO HARD TO FIND A DRY LINE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON...SO THINK STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED ABOUT FAIRLY UNIFORMLY AT FIRST. IF SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP EASTERLY SURFACE COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD WILL ENHANCE
TORNADO THREAT IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SIMILAR TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS...STORMS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY MERGE...BUT WITH UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH EXPECT
EXTENSIVE WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCAPE DOES NOT GO
TO ZERO SO LEFT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DONE BY 06Z TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE
STRONG...WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. DONT
THINK WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY CONSIDERABLY WITH SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

FIRST OFF...APOLOGIZE FOR THE BREVITY OF THIS DISCUSSION. ONGOING
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS TAKE PRIORITY.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BRIEFLY TO THE TRI-STATE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FIRST...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTHWEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A
DRY FORECAST. ANOTHER CONCERN TO MONITOR IS COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S OVER EAST COLORADO AND LOW TO MID 30S
FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ACTIVE PATTERN RESUMES WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE ROCKIES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE AROUND THE LOW...BRINGING A CONTINUOUS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. UNSURE ON SEVERE AND FLOODING CHANCES BUT DO
FORESEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS
OF FOG POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND GUSTS TO 40KTS AROUND SUNRISE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...024



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