Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 271947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE CLOSED UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING
THROUGH OK/SOUTHER KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA..ALONG WITH FALLING TDS.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RADAR SHOWS BULK OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIP ALONG KS/OK BORDER TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. BASED ON INCREASING TD DEPRESSION OVER THE
CWA...AND AXIS OF FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE WELL SOUTH...ANY OF THESE
LIGHT RETURNS WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA AT MOST THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR  WITH BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH FREEZING (POSSIBLY LOWER)
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN TD VALUES ADVERTISED FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WE MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. WET GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO KEEP TD VALUES FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED WHICH SEEMS
TO ALREADY BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE...AND BETTER DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN
THE 60S/NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL A SECONDARY H3
JET PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A LIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE IN OUR NORTH. I STILL CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS
MID LEVEL VORT MAX PASSES TO THE NORTH AND COLD POOL DEVELOPS...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. IN THE END THIS
MAY JUST BE VIRGA AND LITTLE ELSE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...H5/H7 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ENTIRE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS THRU MIDWEEK. MODELS
TREND THIS RIDGE TO FLATTEN... AND ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK ON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO ENSUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH RIDGE
FLATTENING ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW...THE AREA WILL SEE A SEVERAL 700MB
SHORTWAVES WORKING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS REGION. EACH
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RW/TRW...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGHS WILL WORK OFF THE FRONT RANGE WITH EACH
SYSTEM...PROVIDING ENHANCEMENT FOR TRW TO FORM...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL RANGE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGH/LOWS. 850 TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ON UP TO 80F IN SPOTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME L50S
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL/COULD BE TEMPERED SOME BY THE
EXTENT OF CLOUDS FROM EXPECTED PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME VIRGA AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BRING ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF KMCK TAF
CONSIDERING LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST AT KGLD 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING AROUND 00Z.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AFTER THAT
PREVAILING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT BOTH KGLD/KMCK AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 12KT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR


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