Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 061801
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1201 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REMAINS IN A MOIST PATTERN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EARLY IN
THE WEEK WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A WEAKER SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND THROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DRYLINE WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.

ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES LIFT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA
BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION AND REMAINING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
PROVIDING AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE STILL MAKING IT`S WAY NORTH FROM THE GULF AND THE UPPER
IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
DRYLINE...BUT A FEW STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

A CUT OFF LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BRING STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL WILL TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...WHICH WILL
BRING AREA PWATS IN THE VICINITY OF 0.80 TO 1.2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO COMING
TOGETHER REGARDING THE MID TO LOWER LEVEL JET PLACEMENT DIRECTLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT
TO PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR TO GET SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HIGHEST VALUES OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR APPROACHING 60 KTS.  ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO PRODUCING A LOT OF
QPF...SO WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MOVE
EASTWARD SUNDAY...CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES DRAMATICALLY DROP OFF ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LIKELY WITH MOSTLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY TAPER
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  FROST IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN COLORADO DROPPING TO NEAR
FREEZING.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY...WHICH WILL
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING WARMTH TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
HEATING. UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL POSE A RISK TO BOTH TERMINALS
FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...024



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