Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231912
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGLD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS.
ONCE STORMS PASS THE VICINITY OF KGLD...LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT TONIGHT DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN THE MID
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK


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