Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 311120
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
520 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY
RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
IN NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FURTHER WEST
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND THERE IS A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY IN EASTERN AREAS WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS. STRONGER FORCING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT RAIN TO GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEST OF HIGHWAY
25...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FOR A CHANGEOVER EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. EVEN
IN THE WEST...SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING AND RECENT WARMTH WILL KEEP THE GROUND WARM...BOTH OF
WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW. NONETHELESS...MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY WET SNOW IN
THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FRIDAY...A TROUGH WILL GENERATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
MORNING. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING
AND CAUSE VARYING PRECIP TYPES FOR THE AREA. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA...ALONG AND WEST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE
KANSAS LINE... WITH A CHANCE FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND
FROZEN PRECIP WILL LIKELY SWITCH OVER TO RAIN BY NOON. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN COME TO AN END FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS/HILL
AVIATION...024


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