Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 250500
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.  NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.  0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN`T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

KGLD...WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED
TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 15Z THEN NORTH NEAR
10KTS BY 19Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST UNDER 10KTS IN
THE 21Z-23Z TIMEFRAME AND CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE INCREASING
AND START TO GUST IN THE 20-25KT RANGE BY 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY CHANCE AT IFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 04Z AS SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOVES IN FROM THE
EAST. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z AS WELL.

KMCK...NORTHWEST WIND UNDER 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO VEER
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 18Z THEN EAST AROUND
12KTS AROUND 03Z. AFTER 03Z WINDS INCREASE AND START TO GUST IN
THE 20-25KT RANGE FROM THE EAST. TOUGH FORECAST ON CIGS FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 17Z THEN AGAIN AFTER 05Z. STRATUS AND IFR/VLIFR
CIGS JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
THAT THIS AIRMASS REACHES OR NEARLY REACHES THE TERMINAL DURING
THE TIMELINES LISTED ABOVE. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK
AROUND 600` AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH A CEILING AT SIMILAR HEIGHTS
AROUND 10Z. THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP FROM 14Z-17Z. AFTER 05Z IFR/MVFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99



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