Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 182356
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
556 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

PER COLLABORATION AND LATEST TRENDS...WILL BE CANCELING SOME OF
THE TORNADO WATCH AND ADJUSTING OTHER GRIDS. WILL BE COMING OUT
WITH ANOTHER AFD TO DETAIL THOSE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY GOOD AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA
SO HARD TO FIND A DRY LINE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON...SO THINK STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED ABOUT FAIRLY UNIFORMLY AT FIRST. IF SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP EASTERLY SURFACE COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD WILL ENHANCE
TORNADO THREAT IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SIMILAR TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS...STORMS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY MERGE...BUT WITH UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH EXPECT
EXTENSIVE WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCAPE DOES NOT GO
TO ZERO SO LEFT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DONE BY 06Z TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE
STRONG...WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. DONT
THINK WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY CONSIDERABLY WITH SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

FIRST OFF...APOLOGIZE FOR THE BREVITY OF THIS DISCUSSION. ONGOING
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS TAKE PRIORITY.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BRIEFLY TO THE TRI-STATE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FIRST...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTHWEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A
DRY FORECAST. ANOTHER CONCERN TO MONITOR IS COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S OVER EAST COLORADO AND LOW TO MID 30S
FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ACTIVE PATTERN RESUMES WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE ROCKIES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE AROUND THE LOW...BRINGING A CONTINUOUS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. UNSURE ON SEVERE AND FLOODING CHANCES BUT DO
FORESEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ACTIVE PERIOD IN STORE. FOR KGLD...BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA
COMPARED TO RADAR TRENDS WILL ONLY CARRY A VCTS AT KGLD THROUGH
02Z. THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE EVENING WHEN
WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND EXITING UPPER LOW AFFECT THE AREA
UNTIL NEAR 15Z SUNDAY. IFR CONDITIONS TO JUST ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM 15Z
TO 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THAT. AFTER 06Z...NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE GUSTY. NEAR 15Z THROUGH MOST OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
40 KNOTS.

FOR KMCK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AFTER THAT WRAPAROUND
RAIN SHOWERS FROM EXITING SYSTEM WILL BRING IFR TO JUST ABOVE IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 15Z TO
18Z. AFTER 18Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALSO AFTER 06Z...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. BY LATE MORNING SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER


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