Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 191142
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
542 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO ADJUST DOWN POPS FOR REMAINDER OF
MORNING HRS...AS WELL AS REDUCING AREAL COVERAGE OF SAID PRECIP
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. CURRENTLY
PRECIP IS COMING TO AN END OVER NW ZONES...WITH BACK EDGE NOW
MOVING THRU CENTRAL ZONES. LATEST MOVEMENT OF THE BACK EDGE HAS
PROMPTED A SPEED UP BY A FEW HOURS OF MAIN RAIN. WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER STILL EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HAVE KEPT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE --RW DESPITE MAIN RW BAND CLEARING. ALSO HAVE
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE REMAINING RAINFALL
MAY COME DOWN MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING...THE AREA IS FINALLY
STARTING TO SEE THE SLOW END TO THE PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS FALLEN
OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS...BRINGING UP TO 3 TO 4 INCHES OF
NEEDED RAIN TO SOME LOCALES. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN SET OVER
THE ROCKIES IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. SLOW TREND DOWNWARD IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM WEST
TO EAST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS SEEING MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM PINWHEELS THRU THE
AREA. WILL TAPER OFF MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER BY MID
MORNING...LEAVING -RW BEFORE ENDING.

REPLACING THIS AREA OF PRECIP DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY WILL BE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DUE TO TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING LOW AND
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRONG GUST POTENTIAL IN 35-45 MPH RANGE WITH STEADY/SUSTAINED
CONDITIONS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE...TAPERING OFF BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MONDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS OUT MORE OVER THE PLAINS REGION.

FOR MONDAY ON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME...KEEPING COOLER AIRMASS INTACT. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES DO PASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME...WITH
POTENTIAL TO CLIP SW ZONES WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIP...OTHERWISE CWA
WILL GET A MUCH NEEDED DRYING OUT PERIOD AFTER THE RAIN RECEIVED.

TEMPS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SHOW A SLIGHT UPTREND INTO
TUESDAY. APPROACHING RIDGE EXPECTED TO MODERATE AIRMASS SOME BY
TUESDAY WITH MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN CURRENTLY WITH UPPER LOW
PASSAGE. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE 50S TODAY...U50S TO
AROUND 60F FOR MONDAY...THEN 60S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
START OFF TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ENDING UP IN THE 35-
40 RANGE FOR THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A LARGER TROUGH FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY TO POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH
TO KEEP POPS ELEVATED IN FORECAST IN THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT OF THE PASSING SYSTEM.  A SHORT DRY PERIOD
MAY RESULT ON SATURDAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE RIDGE TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES AS RAIN CLEARS
REGION AND CEILINGS RISE WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE. FROM
15Z-18Z MVFR WITH BKN030...THEN 18Z ONWARD VFR WITH BKN060-70 BECM
SKC BY 00Z TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS 20-30KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS THRU
00Z TONIGHT THEN WNW 5-15KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



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