Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 200832
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
232 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND SKIES BRIEFLY CLEAR
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE AREAS ALSO CLOSE TO RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF ASSOCIATED WEAK JET MAX ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. MOST MODELS PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THAT AREA...THE
ECMWF A NOTABLE EXCEPTION...SO WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS. DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...POINT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND WET BULB
FREEZING HEIGHTS WELL BELOW THRESHOLD FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH SO NO
HAZARD WILL BE MENTIONED. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CONUS THAT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ALL GENERALLY
AGREE TO TIMING OF THE TROUGH ARRIVING THURSDAY AND PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES IN THE RUNS ARISE AS TO THE
POSITIONING AND TILT OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A NEGATIVE TILT MOVING INTO THE TRI STATE AREA.  IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS COULD BRING SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES PRESENT...UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER STILL EXISTS. HOWEVER...FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAY NOT BE ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING TO WEAKEN THE CAP TO ALLOW FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY LACKING. IT SHOULD BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS SCENARIO IN THE COMING DAYS.

ONCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND FROM THE
SAME SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CONUS AS THE ORIGINAL UPPER WAVE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT IN REGARD TO TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MID/UPPER
LEVEL AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SMALL AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW TO
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KGLD. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW REACHING KGLD SO
WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OUT. FOR KMCK...LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER


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