Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 012340
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

UPDATE TO GOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR VEIL OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. ALL ACTIVITY EMANATING FROM CONVECTION
OFF OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. TREND IS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD THRU THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATE FOR THE CWA. REST OF FORECAST
IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL COLORADO IS
FINALLY EDGING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SO WILL LEAVE
CURRENT POPS FOR TRW/RW IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE H5/H7 TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPARENT ON UPSTREAM RADARS MOVING
EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA EXTENDING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA OR SPREADING EAST INTO THE
CWA AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH FRONT IN PLACE AND
AIR MASS DESTABILIZING THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE. HIGH CINH
VALUES CURRENTLY IN PLACE ARE INHIBITING CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
THE CWA DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
IT APPEARS THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CHANCES
FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL FROM RAP/HRRR
CONTINUES TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. 12Z GUIDANCE WAS
RUNNING HIGH REGARDING CAPE VALUES MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH AS
SKIES HAVE CLEARED THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW 500-1000 KG/J
ML CAPE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. SHEER IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE AND AT THIS POINT SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE LIMITED.
ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR
TRANSITION EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A SHARP
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE.

SATURDAY...VERY GOOD WAA IS ADVERTISED AND WITH CLEARING SKIES
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80S ACROSS
THE CWA...POSSIBLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE EAST. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM INITIATION NEAR SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG CO/KS BORDER POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z...OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVE LATER IN THE EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY UNSTABLE AIR
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH NAM ADVERTISING 1500-2500 J/KG OF ML
CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHEER IS A LITTLE BETTER THAN TODAY WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEER IN EXCESS OF 35KT. WITH THIS IN MIND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
POTENTIALLY ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE. WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL
SHEER LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND CONTINUE TO BE MAIN CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL MIGRATE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE
INDICATED AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA.  H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH IS NOT IDEAL SO WILL KEEP POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.  CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED WITH AN
AREA OF 35 KTS SHEAR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.  A FEW ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD
IMPACT EASTERN COLORADO BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ALSO NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FA.  GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
MOVE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT SO WILL GO WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE EVENING WHERE STORMS SHOULD
ALREADY BE IN PROGRESS. HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE AFTER 06Z
MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE ENTIRE AREA. MONDAY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTH.  FURTHERMORE, THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, DYNAMICS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.  CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED POPS
SOME BUT STILL KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PHASE INTO A TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH FRIDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 TUESDAY WARMING TO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT060-070
SCT-BKN150-250. KGLD MAY SEE MVFR FOG 03Z-06Z. VCSH AFT 18Z
SATURDAY FOR BOTH TAF SITES...BUT ONLY KGLD MAY SEE VCSH THRU 06Z
TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO MEANDER FROM SW TO SE 5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JN


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