Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170831
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
231 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH FOG
AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS. AREAS ACROSS SW NEBRASKA SEEING ARE THE LAST
VESTIGES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING THROUGH FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN/CONVECTION. 500/700 MB LOW THAT HAS SAT OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL SHIFT SLOW EAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. AT THE SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY LINE
REMAINS OVER WESTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA. THIS SCENARIO WILL AGAIN BRING
STRONG MOISTURE FEED UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND CREATE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS TO BRING ABOUT RW/TRW.

WITH THIS...SPC HAS PUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER ENHANCED
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO
THE EVENING HRS. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A POSSIBLE TORNADO SO HAVE PUT IN
ENHANCED WORDING INTO THE FORECAST. FOR RAINFALL TODAY...THE CWA
WILL SEE DRIZZLE AND FOG END THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO RW/TRW
DEVELOPMENT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODEL QPF DOES
HINT AT LEAST 0.50" TO 1.00" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA...AND WITH
SOME TRAINING/STRONG STORMS LAST NIGHT...SOME LOCALES COULD SEE
LOCALIZED AMTS EVEN HIGHER...SO HYDRO CONCERN WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

EXPECTING PRECIP/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FROM SW TO NE AS ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST OFF
THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE. THE FOCUS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE
SET UP FOR PRECIP OVER AREA AS UPPER LOWS SHIFT EAST THRU THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKING AT HIGHER POPS FOR EASTERN ZONES ON SATURDAY
AND FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS FOR
NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS SYSTEMS
EXITS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SE OFF
THE ROCKIES. WITH THE ESE FLOW COMING AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE...LOOKING
FOR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
INTO EASTERN COLORADO. WITH CAA ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE...SOME
LOCALES MAY SEE A MIX/CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUM.

CLOUD COVER FOR THE 72-HOUR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT
ON TEMPS...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S TODAY/SATURDAY...BUT DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO THE MID 40S FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AS COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS SOME CLEARING AS FAR NORTH
AS THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE. WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED ON
SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER COLD POOL DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT. IT WILL BE VERY
WINDY ON SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WEAK VORTICITY LOBE
ROTATING OUT OF COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF A WRAY TO GOVE
LINE. QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALL THE WAY TO
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS
THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN TIME OF YEAR CANNOT RULE OUT
A LOW END SEVERE THREAT EITHER DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

AFTER THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, STRATUS
AND FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND KMCK DUE THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE MOISTURE. CONSEQUENTLY LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS


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