Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 271124
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW FAST PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLEARING
BEGINS TODAY AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
TUESDAY...AND HOW MUCH THE WARMUP WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE JET WITH THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS NOT TOO BAD
AT MID LEVELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ENDED OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA AS THE LAST BAND OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MOST MODEL OUTPUT NO
MATTER HOW WELL IT IS CURRENTLY DOING ON THE POSITION OF THE
RAINFALL...ENDS THE RAINFALL BY 18Z. THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST ON
ITS POSITION AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HRRR...WILL LOWER THE POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND HAVE
THEM END BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL END UP HAVING SOME KIND OF
FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE WINDS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY AND THERE IS A LOT DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID
LEVELS THAT WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA. SO AS THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS SHOWN...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
SINCE IT CLEAR THE FIRST AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING MAXES.

MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL HAVE WET GROUND AND
THAT MAYBE COULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE AND WENT WITH THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET IS
APPROACHING DURING THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OR BE CLOSE TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. NEW MODEL OUTPUT
KEEPS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AS THE JET LIFT.

THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING IN. GOOD
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AS WELL. SAME PROBLEM AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT YESTERDAY...LACK OF MOISTURE/DEEP DRY LAYER...ARE
STILL IN PLACE. THERE IS ENOUGH THERE THAT CONTINUING THE
SPRINKLES THE DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS STATED ABOVE THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PRESSURE OR
COLD SURGE THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FRONT TO THE NORTH WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING SO THIS DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE. PLUS
CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY. SO
TEMPERED THE WARMUP AND TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GUIDANCE.

ANOTHER WEAK WIND FIELD IS IN PLACE DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE/DRAINAGE WINDS DO DEVELOP IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL THE SETUP IN PLACE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DOES IT WARM
UP AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/PLENTY OF SUN MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE THIS...STILL RATHER SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
SINCE THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT ON THE MID
LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. IN
FACT...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IS
ACTUALLY RESPONDING LIKE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
WITH AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN PLACE. SO BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON THE WARMING WITH THE NWP LOOKING A LITTLE WARM IN THIS
PATTERN. WENT CLOSER TO THE 2 METER AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT ON THE 850
MB TEMPERATURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND FLATTEN
THUS LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO FRIDAY. STRONG 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY LEADS TO THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING QUITE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.

I WENT WITH MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS TROUGH. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

FOR KGLD...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. FROM 16Z TO 23Z THERE WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 22 KNOTS.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM
18Z TO 23Z...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 17 KNOTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...BULLER



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