Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 040838
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS STARTS OUT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
BOTH COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR EACH PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST AREA SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A DIRTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DOES SO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY STILL
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
MOVES INTO PLACE OFF OF VANCOUVER. THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES
TROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST.

THE COLDFRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH A LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND.

WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FROM MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.   PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HAD THIS FEATURE BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...BUT NOW MODEL
TRENDS HAVE THE SYSTEM REMAINING AS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION.  ALSO...NEW TRENDS SEEM TO HAVE THE UPPER TILT REMAINING
NEUTRAL INSTEAD OF NEGATIVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
REGARDLESS...MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS HIGH
AS 30 KTS.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT NEEDED TO GET STORMS FIRING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
INFLUENCES THE HIGH PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOW
70S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MAY. MODELS SEEM TO SHOW A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO PERHAPS THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

OVERALL THINKING FOR STRATUS/FOG REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. HAVE
GROWN LESS CONFIDENT MVFR FOG WILL BE OBSERVED AT KGLD SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG MENTION. FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC
TOWARDS CEILINGS SO FEEL THAT IFR CEILINGS ARE UNLIKELY NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
SHORT TERM THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK HAS BECOME THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTH.
STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



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