Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170838
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH FOG
AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS. AREAS ACROSS SW NEBRASKA SEEING ARE THE LAST
VESTIGES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING THROUGH FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN/CONVECTION. 500/700 MB LOW THAT HAS SAT OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL SHIFT SLOW EAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. AT THE SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY LINE
REMAINS OVER WESTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA. THIS SCENARIO WILL AGAIN BRING
STRONG MOISTURE FEED UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND CREATE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS TO BRING ABOUT RW/TRW.

WITH THIS...SPC HAS PUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER ENHANCED
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO
THE EVENING HRS. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A POSSIBLE TORNADO SO HAVE PUT IN
ENHANCED WORDING INTO THE FORECAST. FOR RAINFALL TODAY...THE CWA
WILL SEE DRIZZLE AND FOG END THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO RW/TRW
DEVELOPMENT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODEL QPF DOES
HINT AT LEAST 0.50" TO 1.00" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA...AND WITH
SOME TRAINING/STRONG STORMS LAST NIGHT...SOME LOCALES COULD SEE
LOCALIZED AMTS EVEN HIGHER...SO HYDRO CONCERN WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

EXPECTING PRECIP/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FROM SW TO NE AS ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST OFF
THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE. THE FOCUS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE
SET UP FOR PRECIP OVER AREA AS UPPER LOWS SHIFT EAST THRU THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKING AT HIGHER POPS FOR EASTERN ZONES ON SATURDAY
AND FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS FOR
NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS SYSTEMS
EXITS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SE OFF
THE ROCKIES. WITH THE ESE FLOW COMING AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE...LOOKING
FOR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
INTO EASTERN COLORADO. WITH CAA ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE...SOME
LOCALES MAY SEE A MIX/CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUM.

CLOUD COVER FOR THE 72-HOUR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT
ON TEMPS...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S TODAY/SATURDAY...BUT DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO THE MID 40S FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AS COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FEATURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A STRONG 50 KT 500 MB JET ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ON MONDAY.
LOWER HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE TO COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
COULD RESULT DUE TO EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
30S...BUT LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL INDICATES A WEAK 700 MB
SHORTWAVE AND SOME JET ENERGY OVER THE TRI STATE AREA COUPLED WITH
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GFS SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
SATURATED LAYER THAT COULD INDICATE DECENT CLOUD COVER THAT COULD
INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING AND THWART STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS FAVOR MORE
OF A DRY PATTERN...SO MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST A BIT.  DECIDED
TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO CAPE IN THE
PROFILE.

ECMWF AND GFS HAVE DIFFERENCES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.  THE
GFS SHOWS A RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...BUT ECMWF HAS SUBSIDENCE WITH MORE OF
A RIDGE PATTERN.  BECAUSE OF THE START DIFFERENCES WITH THE POSITION
OF THE ONCOMING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...HARD TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE NOT INCLUDED DUE TO CAPE IN THE PROFILE...SO LEFT
THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

AFTER THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, STRATUS
AND FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND KMCK DUE THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE MOISTURE. CONSEQUENTLY LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS



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