Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 161755
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1155 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO
BORDER TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PALMER DIVIDE FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THIS MORNING FROM DENVER TO DODGE CITY
TO AMARILLO 145% TO 190% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERAL IDEA IS FOR ONE SPOKE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA) TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL HELP PROMOTE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER SPOKE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOVING IN BEHIND IT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TOWARD SUNRISE BUT WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE DRIZZLE AND PLENTY OF
FOG. WITH ALL THE RECENT AND EXPECTED RAINFALL DENSE FOG CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHERE THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SET UP. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH FAVOR NEARLY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA WHERE DRIER AIR REMAINS.

ABOVE/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN FRIDAY
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND PHASES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
DOWN THE WEST COAST...FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
U.S....EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

EXPECT A COOLER AIRMASS TO SETTLE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA. THAT COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MESSY TAF FORECAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS AND LIKELIHOOD OF AMENDMENTS
RATHER HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KGLD...LIFR CONDITIONS FROM TAF ISSUANCE 19Z OR 20Z BEFORE CIGS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY. CIGS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO
IFR/VLIFR RANGE AFTER 10Z. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KTS. MAY SEE ONE ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN A BREAK TIL
ROUGHLY 02Z OR SO WHEN ANOTHER ROUND MOVES IN AND IMPACTS THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z. AFTER 10Z DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LATER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LEAVING THE TERMINAL UNDER
STRATUS AND DRIZZLE/FG WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY DOWN TO 1/4
MILE.

KMCK...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 20Z OR SO
BEFORE CIGS RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE CIGS LOWER SLOWLY INTO IFR CATEGORY THROUGH 07Z. CIGS
FURTHER LOWER INTO VLIFR CATEGORY FROM 08Z THROUGH REST OF TAF
PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15KTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ROUGHLY AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.