Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 300910
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO COLORADO.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. POPS WILL
BE NIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING SILENT
POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS... ECMWF... AND
CMC ARE ALL IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT UPON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF THE TROUGHS HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE IS BECOMING A BIT MORE PERSISTENT UPON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT UPON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS SENDING IT
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE ECMWF SENDING IT FURTHER
EAST OVER WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW
WITH AN ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODEL AT THIS TIME. I AM STILL LEANING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE PROJECTED STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE LOW OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. IF THE GFS SOLUTION WERE TO PLAY OUT
THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD SET UP JUST WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION WERE
CORRECT WE WOULD SEE THE STORMS SET UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE ECMWF HAS
ALSO BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM DUE TO STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. SHEAR SEEMS TO DROP OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH. PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES FOR THE
TIME PERIOD WILL BE 0.80 TO 1.15 INCHES FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...024



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