Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 272034
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
334 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

TONIGHT-TUE:
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER POPS ALONG OK BORDER TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CHANCES ON TUE LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
POINT...ALTHOUGH AREA RIGHT ON OK BORDER IN SE KS MIGHT GET
CLIPPED BY A STRAY SHOWER. LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
NORTH WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DRIER AIR. WITH A BIT MORE INSOLATION
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUE...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM SLIGHTLY AS
WELL.

TUE NIGHT-THU:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT/EARLY
WED WITH ATTENDENT INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT LOW
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW TRANSITION
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. RIDGING WILL BE THE RULE ON FRI-SAT. THIS
IS THEN QUICKLY REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. WITH THIS COMES TWO ISSUES...POTENTIAL FOR WEAK RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW AND POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION OVER HIGH PLAINS
ROLLING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...BEST CHANCES WILL
BE IN THE NIGHT PERIODS IN CENTRAL KS...WITH CHANCES INCREASING
FOR SUN/MON AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING
THROUGH. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND LIKELY BEYOND.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 12Z
TUE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST TX AND APPROACHING THE
ARKLATEX REGION. SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO MISS ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  67  44  73 /  20  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      42  66  43  72 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  66  44  71 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        45  67  44  71 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  67  43  73 /  40  10   0  10
RUSSELL         40  68  45  72 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      41  67  43  72 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          42  68  44  72 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       41  67  44  72 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  65  43  72 /  30  10  10   0
CHANUTE         46  66  44  72 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            46  66  43  71 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    47  66  43  72 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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