Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 180850
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND IS SPINNING OVER COLORADO.
SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY WITH IT HAVE HELPED TO SPARK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MORNING:
EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE...JUST A WELCOME DRINK
OF RAIN.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING:
THINK THAT THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. STILL SLIGHTLY CONCERNED
THAT STORMS COULD FIRE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 18Z
WITH THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER
LOW...HOWEVER...THE BEST SUPPORT FOR COVERAGE IS CLOSER TO 21Z TO
00Z. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE PLENTIFUL TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THERE
IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR A TORNADO...BEST CHANCES RESIDE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH THE
BETTER HELICITY/EHI FURTHER SOUTH IN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT STORMS TO
MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. THE SEVERE CHANCES DECREASE
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THOUGH AS THE PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE
THERE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY:
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND LOBES OF
VORTICITY ARE EXPECTED TO CIRCLE AROUND IT WHICH COULD SPARK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SHOWERS AND THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...IN THE 60S BUT THINGS
SHOULD BE DRY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT AND A PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND ITS BACK SIDE IT WILL IMPACT THE AREA WHILE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BUT THE GUIDANCE HAS DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE LOCATION OF
THE PRECIPITATION...THINK IT COULD BE SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE...HOWEVER THE GFS PUSHES IT RIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PERIOD AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW.

BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PERIOD HAS QUITE A
FEW DISCREPANCIES WITH THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SOLUTION IS LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S...NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AVIATION CONCERN STILL REMAINS STORMS OVERNIGHT.

STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850-700MB LEVEL. THIS WILL
ALL BE OCCURRING IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. STILL NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. BY
SUNRISE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EXITING SE KS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z ON SAT JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND TRACK NORTHEAST. LOCATIONS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-135 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE STORMS. SEVERE
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA CAUSING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX REMAINS BELOW ELEVATED CONCERN
LEVELS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  54  66  39 /  60  60  70  10
HUTCHINSON      75  52  62  39 /  60  60  70  10
NEWTON          73  52  62  40 /  70  60  80  10
ELDORADO        74  54  69  41 /  80  60  80  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  54  70  40 /  60  60  70  10
RUSSELL         75  51  59  36 /  60  60  60  10
GREAT BEND      74  50  59  35 /  60  60  60  10
SALINA          76  52  61  38 /  70  60  70  10
MCPHERSON       74  52  60  38 /  60  60  70  10
COFFEYVILLE     73  56  70  43 /  90  60  80  20
CHANUTE         72  56  70  42 /  90  60  80  20
IOLA            71  56  69  42 /  90  60  80  20
PARSONS-KPPF    73  56  69  42 /  90  60  80  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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