Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 191801
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
101 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOOKING AT A LOOP OF THE RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR THE UPPER
LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WESTERN KANSAS. THE
CONVECTION THAT FIRED OFF DURING THE EVENING HAS MOVED OFF OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW WRAPPING AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF IT OVER COLORADO AND OVER NEBRASKA. CLEARING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WHILE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS IS
FINALLY ON THE MOVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  CYCLONIC CURVATURE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO A
PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER SOUTHERN
KS.  ALSO SEEING A LARGE WRAPAROUND RAIN SHIELD ACROSS MOST OF NW
KS...AS MOISTURE GETS COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND THE NRN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM.

EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO FINALLY MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING SW MO BY THIS EVENING...AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM HELPS KICK THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE PLAINS.  AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST...THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY
EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER AS THIS MOVES EAST...AS
THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR KEEPS ANY SEVERE CHANCES TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST IN OK.

AS THE LOW MARCHES EAST...WRAPAROUND RAIN IN NW KS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS INITIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY THIS
EVENING.  SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THIS CHANCE.  NOT SURE
THE WRAPAROUND SHOWERS WILL SEE VERY MUCH EMBEDDED THUNDER AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...BUT WILL
LEAVE A MENTION IN FOR NOW...GIVEN REMNANT SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECTED AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TODAY:
ALL OF THE SHORT-TERM HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARDS MORNING BREAK. EXPECT THIS WITH ONE OF THE LOBES
OF VORTICITY THAT WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. AS OF 3AM THINK
THE FIRST HINT OF THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND FOR THE MORNING
HOURS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
WANE IN BETWEEN...BUT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS THEM
INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS 18Z OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE
CAPE IS NOT OVERWHELMING (1000-1500) AND SHEAR IS BEST SOUTH OF
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...THE SUPPORT OF THE UPPER WAVE COULD HELP
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE EARLIER RATHER THAN LATER...18-21Z. AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALL INSTABILITY WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AS WELL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL
TODAY...BRINGING BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL END BY THE END OF THE DAY AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD.

MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT IMPACTED THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
GET ABSORBED BY A POTENT UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL SLOW AND STALL OUT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS A FEW DIFFERENT WAVES MOVE AROUND IT AND IMPACT OUR AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. ON TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO CHANGE AND EVOLVE...THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST IS STRONG ENOUGH AND THE NEXT UPPER LOW
FROM BAJA IS SLOW ENOUGH THAT THE CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAS DIMINISHED. AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AS
OF THE 00Z/19TH GUIDANCE WILL NOT APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THERE ARE STILL SOME WAVES MOVING
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WITH A BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS SLIM. THE
UPPER WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY PULLING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA WHICH COULD
MEAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA...BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION.
COULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN. HOWEVER...WITH THE
CHANGES ALREADY SEEN TO THIS PERIOD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL WANT TO WATCH LATER FORECASTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LOCATED TO THE NW OF THIS
LOW...FROM JUST NW OF KHUT TO KSLN.  EXPECT THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...
AFFECTING INITIALLY THE KRSL/KSLN TAFS...BUT THINK KHUT AND KICT
WILL DROP TO MVFR CIGS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SOME TSRA REDEVELOPMENT
OVER SE KS...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE KCNU TAF. SO WILL KEEP A VCTS
MENTION IN THIS LOCATION FOR A FEW HOURS.  THINK THIS TSRA CHANCE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STORMS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL REACH VERY HIGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH OF I-70 MAINLY DUE TO BREEZY NORTH WESTERLY
WINDS. THE RECENT RAINS WILL HELP THE THREAT OF OUT OF CONTROL
WILD FIRES BY GREENING UP THE GRASSLANDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  37  64  41 /  80  20   0  10
HUTCHINSON      64  36  63  40 /  70  10   0  10
NEWTON          65  36  61  40 /  80  20   0  10
ELDORADO        68  38  63  41 /  80  20   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  37  64  42 /  80  20   0  10
RUSSELL         60  33  62  38 /  70  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      62  33  62  38 /  70  10   0  10
SALINA          63  36  64  38 /  60  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       62  36  62  39 /  70  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  41  64  42 /  80  20  10  10
CHANUTE         68  40  64  40 /  80  20  10   0
IOLA            68  40  63  40 /  80  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  40  64  41 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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